A research group of the University of Rome “La Sapienza”, in co-operation with IDE@-Research Area on International Economics, with the financial and scientific support of the Global Development Network and the World Bank, Human Development and Social Protection Unit, is carrying out a research program aiming at detecting empirically the phenomenon of macrovulnerability linked to trade openness. This research program has been carried out partially in Rome and partially in Washington DC, at the World Bank, HDSP Unit..The scope of this research program is to underline the role of the integration process and forward looking policies in reducing exposure to external shocks. The analysis is focused on Eastern Europe, in consideration of the dramatic and unprecedented trade liberalization process experienced in the area at the beginnings of ‘90s, and the on going accession process towards EU. The difficulty of properly measuring macrovulnerability to trade shocks at the macro level is acknowledged and emphasized. We propose an original measure to combine trade shocks, volatility and human development. The main result of the analysis is to demonstrate that trade liberalization in Eastern Europe, if not associated with adequate tools or consistent policies, could be harmful for CEECs’ human development and sustainable livelihood and that the apparent association in Eastern Europe between trade liberalization and socio-economic performance could be misleading. The social and economic convergence process, currently in place, between CEECs and EU member countries could in fact hidden that actually trade liberalization negatively influences the human development levels in most of CEECs. This preliminary evidence provides a substantive contribution to the debate, currently in place, about the role of international trade on the socioeconomic performance of emerging countries, as well as the determinants and effects of volatility. Though the concept of vulnerability has been discussed both at the macro (national) level and at the micro (household/individual) level, most of the vulnerability analyses usually adopt a micro approach. However, the growing and widespread globalization process compels to look at vulnerability explicitly considering its macroeconomic dimensions and implications. This consideration induced us to exert some efforts to develop a broader approach to vulnerability starting from the macroeconomic (comparative) level. The preliminary results of the research have been presented at the Fifth Annual Global Development Conference “Understanding Reform” held in New Delhi, India January 28-30, 2004. IDE@ will follow up this event organizing, in co-operation with the World Bank, HDSP Unit, and again with the financial support of GDN, two Risk and Vulnerabiliy Assessments at the “meso” level. The idea is to test the results obtained at the macro level, trying to analyze more in depth the economic and social linkages and the actual channels of transmission between external shocks and the main internal socioeconomic variables in specific socio-economic contexts such as a specific country or region. We are planning to carry out two preliminary meso analyses in Algeria and Puglia Region. A specific focus on the characteristics of the entrepreneurial local system will be also carry out, benefiting from the specific knowledge of some of the IDE@ associates.

Pierluigi Montalbano, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.